Decision trees can be used in mediations as a method of analysing the risks and quantum of a case.
For instance, in a tripping personal injury case, where the Claimant is suing for £100,000, a simple version of a decision tree may consider:
1. How likely is it that the Judge will find that the Claimant tripped over a dangerous defect in the highway? Perhaps 90%
2. Did the Defendant do what it reasonably could to prevent the danger, particularly having regard to Section 58 Highways Act 1980? Perhaps the Claimant's solicitor/barrister may feel that the Claimant has a 65% chance on this part.
3. Is there likely to be contributory negligence? Perhaps 25% (so 75% in favour of the Claimant).
Using a simple decision tree, this would suggest a present value of £43,875. (£100,000 x 90% at stage 1 = £90,000. £90,000 x 65% at stage 2 = £58,500. £58,500 x 75% at stage 3 = £43,875).
In : Decision Trees
Tags:
"mediation decision trees" "decision trees in mediation"